I'm in agreement with @pirog #53 - the solution should be something that's maintained by core Drupal team. I would rather see core contribs work to maintain easily accessible and excellent documentation and build recipes for the most common / popular local dev tools (listed over and over in this thread... docker compose, ddev, lando, docksal, etc) than have Drupal have one dev environment framework be anointed as The One. Getting people spun up quickly is critical but the reality is that after that initial experience, even new Drupal devs are going to encounter projects where they will be asked to use different tooling for different organizational reasons.
Though while I was typing this the idea of a "default" as opposed to 'official' was presented which I support just because it would make startup docs really consistent.