Follow-up to #3303556: varbase_media or ctools cause extension update to fail →
In that issue Ctools 4.0.1 was installed although it was not supported. So updating some other modules forced ctools to 3.x version presumably because they have Composer requirement that had that constraint.
That triggered an error from \Drupal\automatic_updates_extensions\Validator\UpdateReleaseValidator
Cannot update because the following project version is not in the list of installable releases. Project ctools to version 3.11.0
Project ctools to version 3.11.0
This because \Drupal\automatic_updates\ProjectInfo::getInstallableReleases() will not return any versions before currently installed version. This is because Drupal doesn't handle project downgrades well.
But in the case that a project does not have any extensions that are installed according to Drupal we probably could safely allow a downgrade
Not sure we want to add this complication in the MVP but at some point:
Allow dependent projects to be downgraded if none of the extensions in the project are enable in Drupal
Active
3.0
Automatic Updates Extensions
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It's likely this issue predates Contrib.social: some issue and comment data are missing.