I suppose there is a bug about time zone handling with the Publication plugin. The dates are saved as UTC (DateTimeItemInterface::STORAGE_TIMEZONE) in the DB. But processSchedulerQuery() use a plain new DrupalDateTime() for comparing start and end dates. This is using the timezone from the current user which can be different than UTC. This is especially reproducible if using a datetime field (with this patch: 🐛 scheduler_field_type_publication not working if scheduled on same date Fixed ) and not a date only field. But should happen for date only field as well in being to early or too late on publishing depening on given timezone.
Use UTC time zone for comparing, since database is also using UTC time.
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It's likely this issue predates Contrib.social: some issue and comment data are missing.
From my test, the patch doesn't work when in case of a paragraph which needs to be unpublished, if the cron run within 1 hour after the end-date publication time of the paragraph.
I've updated the related issue to consider time-zone, so I think this one could be considered a duplicate of that?
Commited on duplicate #3184191. Can you confirm the commit solve your issue @stefan.korn ?